A Case of MisreckoningThe Catalonian Election of 2012
ISSN: 0014-1151
Year of publication: 2015
Volume: 57
Issue: 187
Pages: 197-210
Type: Article
More publications in: Estadística española
Abstract
The 2012 snap election for the Catalan Parliament raises some statistical issues. Opinion polls failed glaringly, suffering from the well-known concealment of the non-nationalist vote and the so far rather disregarded over-representation in the samples of the Catalan-speaking population. In this paper we investigate the dynamic between the 2010 and 2012 elections, using a simple indirect statistical approach. Language turns out to be a key factor, and data on the linguistic structure of Catalonia are provided. The fact that the support of nationalist parties has remained constant between 2010 and 2012 results from this support increasing among Catalan speakers and decreasing among Spanish speakers.