Spatial Competition in Europe after the Great Recession. An Analysis of Ideal and Real Ideological Positions in Italy, Spain, and France

  1. García Sanz, María Dolores 1
  2. Llamazares, Iván 1
  3. Manrique García, María Aurora 1
  1. 1 Universidad de Salamanca
    info

    Universidad de Salamanca

    Salamanca, España

    ROR https://ror.org/02f40zc51

Revista:
Revista internacional de sociología

ISSN: 0034-9712

Año de publicación: 2018

Título del ejemplar: Variedades del populismo en Europa tras la Gran Recesión

Volumen: 76

Número: 4

Páginas: 2

Tipo: Artículo

DOI: 10.3989/RIS.2018.76.4.18.002 DIALNET GOOGLE SCHOLAR lock_openAcceso abierto editor

Otras publicaciones en: Revista internacional de sociología

Resumen

Los sistemas de partidos europeos han experimentado grandes cambios en las últimas décadas. Especialmente importantes en este sentido han sido el castigo electoral de los partidos gobernantes, la activación política de las actitudes populistas y la emergencia de nuevos partidos. Estos fenómenos han estado fuertemente condicionados por la intensidad de la crisis económica experimentada por los países europeos. Los análisis que se presentan aquí examinan las principales características de la competición ideológica y espacial después de la Gran Recesión en España, Francia e Italia. Nuestro análisis compara las posiciones ideológicas reales (percibidas por todos los votantes) con las posiciones ideales y óptimas predichas por modelos de competición espacial basados en voto de proximidad y direccional, siempre bajo la premisa de que los partidos elegirán aquellas posiciones que les permitan maximizar su porcentaje de votos. Nuestro análisis intenta estimar el grado en el que las actitudes públicas conectadas a la Gran Recesión, en particular la evaluación de los gobiernos y las actitudes populistas, han afectado a las posiciones ideológicas de los partidos. Nuestros resultados indican que hay diferencias apreciables entre las estimaciones derivadas de modelos que usan variables conectadas a la crisis y aquellas basadas en modelos que no usan tales variables. Asimismo, este análisis muestra que las estimaciones basadas en modelos que utilizan las evaluaciones de rendimiento gubernamental y las actitudes populistas están ligeramente más cercanas a las posiciones reales de los partidos políticos. Finalmente, nuestro análisis muestra que las diferencias en las estimaciones ideales entre los modelos que usan tales variables y los que no las usan son mayores en España e Italia, esto es, en los dos países que sufrieron más acusadamente la Gran Recesión.

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Información de financiación

The authors acknowledge financial support by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Innovation Project CSO2013-47667-P.

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