Factores determinantes de la rentabilidad anormal de los Bancos de la OCDE
- Amor Tapia, Borja
- Tascón Fernández, María Teresa
- Fanjul Suárez, José Luis
ISSN: 0210-2412
Año de publicación: 2008
Número: 139
Páginas: 469-500
Tipo: Artículo
Otras publicaciones en: Revista española de financiación y contabilidad
Resumen
Este estudio identifica algunos inductores de la rentabilidad anormal (resultado anormal dividido entre el valor del neto contable al inicio del periodo) utilizando un análisis contextual para los Bancos de la OCDE. Seleccionamos las variables clave teóricas, a partir de estudios previos recogidos en la literatura contable y bancaria, y analizamos el impacto que podrían tener sobre la predicción de la rentabilidad anormal futura. Tras efectuar la regresión de la rentabilidad anormal futura sobre esas variables, verificamos que algunas de ellas, relacionadas con la competitividad de los bancos y con el sistema contable, desempeñan un papel determinante. La evidencia encontrada sugiere que la identifi cación de factores integrantes de la variable «otra información» del Modelo de Ohlson, mediante el análisis contextual, puede contribuir a mejorar la aplicación de este modelo a los bancos comerciales, especialmente cuando actúan en entornos competitivos y cuando la contabilidad no capta algunos intangibles relevantes.
Referencias bibliográficas
- AHMED, A. S., y TAKEDA, C. 1995. Stock market valuation of gains and losses on commercial banks' investment securities An empirical analysis. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 20 (2): 207-225.
- ALLEN, F., y GALE, D. 2004. Competition and Financial Stability, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 36 (3), 453-480.
- ATHANASOGLOU, P. P.; BRISSIMIS, S. N., y DELIS, M. D. 2005. Bank-specific, industry-specific and macroeconomie determinants of bank profitability, Working Paper, Bank of Greece. Disponible; en http://www.bankofgreece.gr/publications/pdf/Papor200525.pdf (Consultado el 1 de julio de 2008).
- BASU, S. 1997. The Conservatism Principle and the Asymmetric Timeliness of Earnings, Journal of Accounting and Economics, 24 (1), 3-37.
- BEAVER, W. H.; EGER, C.; RYAN, S. G., y WOLFSON, M. A. 1989. Financial Reporting, Supplemental Disclosures and Bank Share Prices. Journal of Accounting Research, 27 (2), 157-178.
- BEAVER, W. H., y RYAN, S. G. 2000. Biases and Lags in Book Value and Their Effects on the Ability of the Book-to-Market Ratio to Predict Book Return on Equity, Journal of Accounting Research, 38 (1), 127-148.
- BEGLEY, J.; CHAMBERLAIN, S. L., y LI, Y.-H. 2006. Modeling Goodwill for Banks: A Residual Income Approach with Empirical Tests, Contemporary Accounting Research. 23 (1), 31-68.
- BERGER, A. N., y UDELL, G. F. 2002. Small Business Credit Availability and Relationship Lending: The Importance of Bank Organisational Structure, Economic Journal, 112 (477), F32-F33.
- BOWEN, R. M., y SHORES, D. 2002. Determinants of Economic and Accounting Components of Residual Income: An Application to the Pharmaceutical Industry, Working Paper, University of Washington Business School. Disponible en http://ssrn. com/abstract=208232 (consultado el 1 do julio do 2008).
- BURGSTAHLER, D. C, y DICHEV, I. D. 1997. Earnings, Adaptation y Equity Value, The Accounting Review, 72 (2), 187-215.
- CABRAL, L. M., y SANTOS, J. A. 2001. Cross Selling and Banking Efficiency, Working Paper, New York University and Federal Reserve Bank of New York, disponible en http://ssrn. com/abstract=289442 (consultado el 1 de julio de 2008).
- CHENG, Q. 2005. What Determines Residual Income?, The Accounting Review, 80 (1), 85-112.
- CLAESSENS, S., y LAEVEN, L. 2004. What Drives Bank Competition? Some International Evidence. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 36 (3), 563-592.
- DANBOLT, J., y BEES, W. 2002. The Valuation of European Financial Firms, Review of Accounting and Finance, 1 (1), 5-24.
- DEMIRGÜÇ-KUNT, A.; LAEVEN, L., y LEVINE, R. 2004. Regulations, Market Structure, Institutions and the Cost of Financial Intermediation, Journal of Money, Credit and Ranking, 36 (3), 593-626.
- DEYOUNG, R.; HUNTER, W. C, y UDELL. G. F. 2004. The Past, Present, and Probable Future for Community Banks, Journal of Financial Services Research, 25 (2-3). 85-133.
- ECB, 2000. EU banks' income structure, European Central Bank, disponible en http:www.ecb.int/pub/pdf/other/eubkincen.pdf (consultado el 1 de julio de 2008).
- ELLIOTT, J. A.; HANNA, J. D., y SHAW, W. H. 1991. The evaluation by the financial markets of changes in bank loan loss reserve levels, The Accounting Review, 66 (4), 847-861.
- FELTHAM, G. A., y OHLSON. J. A. 1996. Uncertainly Resolution and the Theory of Depreciation Measurement, Journal of Accounting Research. 34 (2), 209-234.
- - 1995. Valuation and clean surplus accounting for operating and financial activities. Contemporary Accounting Research, 11 (2), 689-731.
- GODDARD, J. A.; MOLYNEUX, P., y WILSON, J. O. S. 2004a. Dynamics of Growth and Profitability in Banking, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 36 (6), 1.069-1.090.
- - 2004b. «The profitability of European banks: a cross-sectional and dynamic panel analysis», The Manchester School, 72 (3), 363-381.
- GRIFFIN, P. A., y WALLACH, S. J. R. 1991. Latin American Lending by Major U. S. Banks: The Effects of Disclosures about Nonaccrual Loans and Loan Loss Provisions, The Accounting Review, 66 (4), 830-846.
- KANAGARETNAM, K.; LOBO, G. L., y YANG, D. H. 2004. Joint Tests of Signaling and Income Smoothing through Bank Loan Loss Provisions, Contemporary Accounting Research, 21 (4), 843-884.
- KOHLBECK, M. 2004. Investor Valuations and Measuring Bank Intangible Assets, Journal of Accounting, Auditing & Finance, 19 (1), 29-60.
- KOHLBECK, M., y WARFIELD, T. 2007. Unrecorded Intangible Assets: Abnormal Earnings and Valuation. Accounting Horizons, 21 (1), 23-41.
- LA PORTA, R.; LOPEZ-DE-SILANES, F.; SHLEIFER, A., y VISHNY, R. W. 1997. Legal Determinants of External Finance. Journal of Finance, 52 (3), 1.131-1.150.
- - 1998. Law and Finance. Journal of Political Economy; 106 (6), 1.113-1.155.
- OHLSON, J. A. 1995. Earnings, Book Values, and Dividends in Equity Valuation, Contemporary Accounting Research, 11 (2), 661-687.
- STULZ, R. M., y WILLIAMSON, R. 2003. Culture, openness, and finance, Journal of Financial Economics, 70 (3), 313-349.
- WAHLEN, J. M. 1994. The nature of information in commercial bank loan loss disclosures, The Accounting Review, 69 (3), 455-478.
- WILSON, J., y WILLIAMS, J. 2000. The size and growth of banks: evidence from four European countries. Applied Economics, 32 (9), 1.101-1.109.
- ZHANG, X. J. 2000. Conservative accounting and equity valuation, Journal of Accounting and Economics, 29 (1), 125-149.