Las encuestas electorales en la prensa escrita (2008-2011). Errores, sesgos y transparencia

  1. Mateos Díaz, Araceli
  2. Penadés de la Cruz, Alberto
Journal:
Metodología de encuestas

ISSN: 1575-7803

Year of publication: 2013

Volume: 15

Issue: 1

Pages: 99-119

Type: Article

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More publications in: Metodología de encuestas

Abstract

Trust in surveys is reinforced by disclosure of their methods, which allows for scientific critique. This is the general understanding within the main polling councils and professional associations for survey research. This paper reviews the electoral surveys published in Spain in the printed press during the period 2008-20011 (the ninth legislature), and it evaluates their consistency as a group, their possible biases and their predictive ability. Next, the standards for transparency employed by pollsters in Spain are compared with those in countries where the industry of public opinion research is more mature. We conclude by recommending greater disclosure of research methods and data to improve the quality of polls.

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